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What the New President Has Inherited
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President-elect Obama is about to become chief executive of the largest enterprise in the world.
He is taking over a government that is on track to spend at least $3.1 trillion between now and next Sept. 30 (and that doesn't count the money that has been allocated for the financial rescue plan ("bailout"). The U.S. government employs about 1.8 million civilian workers, of which about 9,000 are direct political appointees. If you want one of those jobs see The Plum Book, the government's official listing of the jobs up for grabs. Another nearly 1.5 million men and women serve in the military. Hundreds of thousands more people work for federal contractors, including many whose companies rely on contracts for all their income.
While he, like all presidential candidates, has made a long list of promises of new programs, it is likely that President Obama, like others before him, will find that many key decisions that will shape his administration already have been made. In fact, most of them were made decades ago.
The combination of Defense spending, Social Security, Medicare and other transfer programs administered by Health and Human Services and interest on the soaring national debt, absorb nearly 85 cents of every federal dollar. And again, the increase in spending to handle the expected cost of dealing with the housing-fueled financial crisis, has not yet been added to those numbers.
Revenues (taxes) are now estimated at about $2.65 billion for the current fiscal year, leaving a deficit in the range of nearly $500 billion. That's before the twin effects of recession -- lower taxes and higher spending for unemployment and other assistance programs, such as a new stimulus package -- take their toll. And, again, before the "bailout" package spending. In short, even if the new president didn't spend a dime this year on defense, there likely still would be a shortfall. Ditto Social Security or Medicare or interest on the debt.
Every transition is by necessity a "rush job." There are all the "move-in" headaches (not to mention a new puppy to train) and going through appointment vetting and the confirmation process (easier this time around perhaps because the Congress is so heavily Democratic, but Bill Clinton wouldn't agree). Plus, the new president and his staff and cabinet have until early February (two weeks or so after taking office) to send a budget to Congress for the year that starts next Oct. 1. Meanwhile, they have to deal with the effects of the bailout, a new stimulus package. And, oh, there are those two messy wars and a whole bunch of other threats around the world.
No doubt the president-elect knew all this was going to be true. But when he raises his hand at noon on Jan. 20, 2009, to take the oath he might just wish for a second the other guy had won.
Nah, not a chance.

